President Donald Trump’s promised $10 to $15 billion bailout for U.S. farmers, designed to ease the pain of his trade war with China, has faced delays due to the ongoing government shutdown. The announcement, expected this week, missed its deadline. However, the package could still roll out soon. The plan aims to inject liquidity into the agricultural sector, especially soybean producers and other commodity growers hit by reduced exports and rising production costs.
Despite the delay, anticipation has already lifted agricultural stocks. Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland and Corteva Agriscience moved higher, while the VanEck Agribusiness ETF gained 1.2 percent amid broader market uncertainty.
Economic Backdrop
Farm production costs are projected to reach around 467.4 billion dollars in 2025, which is an increase of about 12 billion dollars from last year. Rising input prices and trade disruptions have pressured farmers’ profit margins. The bailout, funded partly by tariff revenues, is similar to the 28 billion dollars in aid released during Trump’s first term. That earlier plan had stabilized the sector and pushed agricultural stocks higher for a while.
Analysts believe the current bailout could provide a five to eight percent boost to agricultural stocks if the funds are released before the end of the month. Joe Glauber, former USDA chief economist, described the move as more than just relief. He said it is also a spending stimulus for the entire agricultural ecosystem.
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Top Agricultural Stocks Expected to Benefit
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
This soybean processing company could see its margins widen as government aid prevents farmers from dumping crops at low prices. The stock rose 1.5 percent and has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 with a dividend yield of 3.4 percent.
Bunge Global (BG)
Bunge, a major grain trader, could benefit as stabilized exports from supported farms boost trading volumes. The company’s shares rose 1.8 percent with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 and a dividend yield of 3.3 percent.
Corteva (CTVA)
Corteva, a leader in seeds and crop protection, stands to gain from deregulation and higher demand for inputs. The stock rose 2.1 percent and has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 with a dividend yield of 1.0 percent.
Deere & Co. (DE)
Deere, a leading farm equipment manufacturer, could see a rise in sales as farmers reinvest their bailout funds into machinery. The stock rose 1.3 percent and has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 with a dividend yield of 1.6 percent.
Nutrien (NTR)
Nutrien, a top fertilizer producer, could see a jump in demand as more acreage receives subsidies. The company’s shares rose 0.9 percent with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 and a dividend yield of 3.7 percent.
FMC Corporation (FMC)
FMC, a chemical producer, could benefit from intensified planting as aid reduces cost pressures on farmers. Its shares rose 1.1 percent with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 and a dividend yield of 6.2 percent.
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
The Mosaic Company, a phosphate supplier, could gain from the need for balanced nutrients in bailout-backed farms. The stock rose 0.7 percent with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 and a dividend yield of 2.8 percent.
CF Industries (CF)
CF Industries, which specializes in nitrogen-based fertilizers, could benefit directly from a recovery in corn and soybean planting. The stock rose 1.0 percent and has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 with a dividend yield of 2.5 percent.
Tyson Foods (TSN)
Tyson Foods could profit from lower feed costs as the bailout stabilizes grain prices. The company’s shares rose 0.6 percent and have a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 with a dividend yield of 3.6 percent.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)
Scotts Miracle-Gro could experience an indirect benefit as healthier farm operations increase demand for turf and specialty fertilizers. The stock rose 1.4 percent with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 and a dividend yield of 4.2 percent.
These companies have deep ties to the Midwest, where soybean losses exceed five billion dollars annually due to China’s retaliatory tariffs.
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How the Bailout Works?
The proposed bailout is modeled after the 2018 Market Facilitation Program, which provided direct payments to farmers who suffered export losses. Soybean growers, whose exports to China have fallen by nearly half, are expected to be the main beneficiaries.
The specific allocation between soybean, corn, and dairy producers is still undecided. However, the initiative reflects Washington’s effort to support rural communities ahead of midterm elections. Past examples show similar moves have lifted agricultural stocks. After the 2018 program was announced, Archer-Daniels-Midland rose seven percent, and Deere gained ten percent due to increased machinery orders.
Despite potential benefits, some farmers remain cautious. Iowa soybean grower Mark Smith said it feels like a Band-Aid on a broken arm, adding that without trade deals, the aid only delays deeper financial pain.
Policy Implications
The Trump administration’s broader agricultural policy could further influence these outcomes.
Biotech deregulation may accelerate approval of genetically modified seeds developed by companies like Corteva. Lower corporate taxes could enhance profit margins across the agricultural supply chain.
Additionally, tariff-funded subsidies may offset short-term trade disruptions, giving temporary support to the sector.
Challenges and Risks
The government shutdown, now in its third week, has halted USDA operations and delayed the release of aid. If the situation continues, disbursements may not start until November, which could reduce the short-term boost to the market.
Another major risk is the potential escalation of tariffs. Trump’s proposal of a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods could further damage exports and undercut the very relief this bailout seeks to provide.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in stocks, cryptocurrencies, or other assets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses incurred from actions based on this article. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, economic data and market conditions can change rapidly. The author and publisher do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the information and are not liable for any errors or omissions. Always verify data with primary sources before making decisions